A New Era of Wildfire

It starts with a spark. Lightning.  A chain dragging on pavement. A loose utility wire arcing electricity. A campfire smoldering after not properly doused. But the environment in which this spark occurs determines whether a small flame turns into a megafire.

From the recent devastating losses in Los Angeles, Calif., to the slew of record-breaking wildfires across Colorado, the conditions on the ground and in the air greatly influence fire behavior.  Short term factors, like weather and wind, combined with longer term trends, like drought, warmer temperatures and unhealthy forests, are influencing how large and how fast a wildfire grows. And now more people are living in and near what is known as the wildland-urban interface, putting both communities and our built environment at greater risk. Leaving many asking the question: what does it mean to live with wildfire today?

Our modern human society has created an environment conducive to large and destructive fires. According to historian Stephen Pyne, we’re living in what he has dubbed the Pyrocene—the age of fire. An era where climate change and human choices are giving rise to a new type of fire, one that’s reshaping our planet.

Colorado's climate has shifted significantly in recent decades. Since 1980, the state's average annual temperature has risen by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Looking ahead, it’s projected that by 2050, temperatures could climb another 2.5 to 5 degrees.

“While a one- or two-degree increase may not seem like much on a daily basis, it’s a big deal for trees that established 200 or 300 years ago, expecting to thrive in a much cooler climate,” says Camille Stevens-Rumann, professor at Colorado State University and director of the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute.

These warming temperatures, combined with decades-long drought, are fundamentally altering Colorado’s forests and landscapes. Earlier spring runoff and diminishing snowpack cause vegetation to dry out earlier in the season, creating more flammable conditions that persist longer into the year. This new normal means fires can burn hotter, spread faster and occur in seasons traditionally considered low risk.

The role of wind in driving catastrophic fires has become increasingly apparent. The January 2025 Los Angeles fires demonstrated this devastating combination, as Santa Ana winds — with speeds of 30-40 miles per hour and gusts reaching hurricane levels — drove flames through extremely dry terrain. The region’s topography exacerbated the situation, as winds pushed the fires from the hillsides down into even more populated coastal areas. The full extent of the impact is still unknown, but the loss of life, property, and sense of community is heartbreaking and will be felt for a long time.

Similar conditions fueled Colorado’s Marshall Fire in December 2021, where NOAA recorded hurricane-force winds for more than 11 hours.  The result was the most destructive wildfire in state history, destroying more than 1000 homes and buildings in Boulder County with total damages estimated at over $2 billion.

But perhaps no event better exemplifies our new fire reality than the October 2020 East Troublesome Fire, which challenges what many thought they knew about wildfire behavior.

Estes Valley Fire Chief David Wolf recalls the morning briefing of Oct. 22, 2020: “I think we were all still very skeptical that the fire could have jumped over the divide where it did, because it is a mile to a mile and a half wide of tundra and no fuels available.”

What began seven days earlier as a small flame on U.S. Forest Service land in Grand County became Colorado’s second-largest wildfire in state history. In just 24 hours, the East Troublesome Fire consumed almost 140,000 acres, devastating the community of Grand Lake before accomplishing what many thought impossible: jumping the Continental Divide at elevations above 10,000 feet.

The increasing frequency and intensity of wildfires presents an unprecedented challenge to our communities, economies and ecosystems. Yet across the West, there are many taking action to develop innovative approaches to fire management, from forest restoration projects to new building codes and emergency response systems.

Local initiatives are showing promising results. In Colorado, collaborative efforts between federal agencies, state forestry departments local communities and university initiatives like the Colorado Forest Restoration Institute (CFRI), have led to successful fuel reduction projects, including using prescribed fire and the creation of defensible spaces around vulnerable areas. These programs demonstrate that while we cannot eliminate wildfire risk entirely, we can work together to build more resilient communities.

"I think wildfire is a weirdly uniting thing. There're no political sides to a home burning down. There're no political sides to losing hundreds of thousands of trees. So the more we can glam onto that thing that is not politically divided in our politically divided world right now, I think the more we can get done,” says CFRI director Stevens-Rumann. 

The challenge of living with wildfire in the Pyrocene requires us to fundamentally rethink our relationship with fire and the landscapes we inhabit. While the task ahead is daunting, the growing recognition of our shared vulnerability—and shared responsibility—offers hope for a more fire-resilient future.

To listen and learn more about wildfire in Colorado and the West, visit The Institute for Science & Policy’s podcast “United by Fire,” a nine-part series along with additional resources.

Listen to episode one here: